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Spatial invasion by a mutant pathogen.

Wei Wei1, Stephen M Krone

  • 1Department of Mathematics, University of Idaho, Moscow ID 83844-1103, USA.

Journal of Theoretical Biology
|May 19, 2005
PubMed
Summary
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A mutant pathogen is more likely to spread if it arises near the infection wavefront, not in the depleted interior. This spatial position is crucial for mutant establishment and pathogen evolution.

Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical modeling

Background:

  • Pathogen spread often occurs in waves, creating spatial gradients in host availability.
  • Mutant pathogens arising within an established infection may face low host densities and fail to establish.
  • The spatial location of a mutant's origin significantly impacts its survival and potential to outcompete wild-type pathogens.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the key factors influencing the establishment and spread of mutant pathogens in a spatially structured host population.
  • To determine the relative importance of mutant position, transmissibility, and virulence in successful invasion.
  • To understand how spatial dynamics shape pathogen evolution and compare predictions from different modeling approaches.

Main Methods:

Related Experiment Videos

  • Development and analysis of an individual-based stochastic spatial model of host-pathogen interactions.
  • Calculation of mutant invasion probability based on transmissibility, virulence, and position within the wavefront.
  • Analytical and simulation studies of the mean time to successful invasion for spontaneously arising mutants.
  • Comparison of model predictions with experimental data on bacteriophage plaque expansion.
  • Evaluation of model outcomes against predictions from ordinary and partial differential equation models.

Main Results:

  • Mutant pathogen invasion probability is strongly dependent on its position relative to the infection wavefront, with origins nearer the front being more successful.
  • Transmissibility and virulence are critical factors, but their impact is modulated by the mutant's spatial location.
  • The spatial position of origin is a primary determinant for mutant establishment, influencing evolutionary trajectories.
  • The individual-based model provides insights consistent with experimental bacteriophage data.
  • Discrepancies and similarities were observed when comparing results from stochastic spatial models with deterministic differential equation models.

Conclusions:

  • Spatial structure is a critical determinant of mutant pathogen success and evolutionary dynamics.
  • Mutants arising in resource-rich (high host density) areas, like the infection wavefront, are favored.
  • The choice of modeling approach (stochastic individual-based vs. deterministic differential equations) can influence predictions about pathogen evolution.
  • Understanding spatial effects is crucial for predicting pathogen emergence and evolution.