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Published on: June 10, 2025
Predictors of congestive heart failure mortality in elderly people from the general population
Alberto Mazza1, Valérie Tikhonoff, Edoardo Casiglia
1Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
Insights
This study identified key predictors of congestive heart failure (CHF) mortality in older adults. Factors like age, male gender, and specific health conditions significantly increase the risk of death from CHF in the elderly population.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Cardiology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a significant health concern in the elderly population.
- Identifying mortality predictors in this demographic is crucial for targeted interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify predictors of congestive heart failure (CHF) mortality in individuals over 65 years old who were initially free of CHF.
- To develop a risk model for CHF mortality in the elderly.
Main Methods:
- A population-based cohort of 3,282 elderly subjects was followed for 12 years.
- Multivariate Cox analysis was used to determine relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for CHF mortality.
- Continuous variables were categorized into tertiles for analysis.
Main Results:
- Key predictors of CHF mortality included: age ≥ 72 years, male gender, coronary artery disease history, pulse pressure ≥ 79 mmHg, heart rate ≥ 81 bpm, atrial fibrillation, left ventricular hypertrophy, diabetes, low vital capacity (≤ 81%), low forced expiratory volume in 1 second (≤ 72%), and low serum sodium (≤ 139 mmol/L).
- Specific relative risks (RR) and confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for each predictor.
Conclusions:
- A model incorporating these predictors can effectively identify elderly individuals at increased risk of death from CHF.
- Early identification allows for proactive management and potentially improved outcomes for elderly CHF patients.
Abstract:
Congestive heart failure (CHF) is highly prevalent in the elderly. The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of CHF mortality in patients over 65 years of age who were free of CHF at initial screening. A total of 3,282 elderly subjects were recruited in a population-based frame and 12-year events were recorded. Continuous items were divided into tertiles and for each tertile adjusted the relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was derived in both genders from multivariate Cox analysis of CHF mortality. Age > or = 72 years ([RR]: 2.24; 95% CI 1.56 - 3.24), male gender ([RR]: 1.4; 95%CI 1.02 - 1.76), clinical history of coronary artery disease ([RR]: 1.25; 95% CI 1.02 - 1.76), pulse pressure > or = 79 mmHg ([RR]: 1.33; 95% CI 1.03 - 1.87), heart rate > or = 81 bpm ([RR]: 1.32; 95% CI 1.10 - 1.96), atrial fibrillation ([RR]: 1.82; 95% CI 1.18 - 2.81), left ventricular hypertrophy ([RR]: 1.42; 95% CI 1.01 - 2.02), diabetes ([RR]: 1.35; 95% CI 1.02 - 1.78), vital capacity < or = 81% of the theoretical value ([RR]: 2.50; 95% CI 1.88 - 3.32), forced expiratory volume in 1 second < or = 72% of the theoretical value ([RR]: 2.02; 95% CI 1.55 - 2.72) and serum sodium level < or = 139 mmol/L ([RR]: 1.95; 95% CI 1.44 - 2.63) predicted CHF mortality. This model is able to identify elderly people at increased risk of death from CHF.
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