Prediction of complications following nonemergency percutaneous coronary interventions

Previous models for prediction of complications after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) have included in-hospital mortality and major in-hospital complications. In general, these models have excluded elevated cardiac biomarkers as a complication. We sought to determine whether a risk model could predict complications, including biomarker elevation, in patients undergoing nonemergency PCI. We examined the outcomes of nonemergency PCI performed on patients at Mayo Clinic from 2000 to 2003. The primary end point was in-hospital complications of death, myocardial infarction (MI) (Q-wave MI, or post-PCI creatine kinase-MB elevation >or=3 times the upper limit of normal), emergency coronary artery bypass grafting, or stroke. We used the Hosmer-Lemeshow test to demonstrate the adequacy of the model fit, and the c-index for discriminatory ability of the model. Of 2,894 nonemergency PCIs, the end point was noted in 232 (8%). The final prediction model included vein graft intervention (odds ratio [OR] 2.19), angiographic thrombus (OR 2.12), preprocedure stenosis of a minor (OR 1.98) or major (OR 1.62) side branch, and type C lesion (OR 1.48). The model had modest ability to discriminate between event and nonevent patients (c = 0.641). In the 500 bootstrap samples for internal validation, the c-index was 0.642 +/- 0.020, indicating only fair discriminatory ability. The average number of observed events was 232.0 +/- 14.7 compared with 232.1 +/- 2.5 expected events (average difference -0.06 +/- 14.5). In conclusion, the 5 risk variables associated with an increased risk of complications in patients undergoing elective PCI included vein graft intervention, presence of angiographic thrombus, stenosis of a major or minor side branch, and type C lesion; however, the discriminatory ability of the model derived from the variables was only modest.