Impact on child mortality of removing user fees: simulation model
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Updated: Jul 21, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Chris James1, Saul S Morris, Regina Keith
1Save the Children UK, London EC1M 4AR. chrisjamesuk@hotmail.com
Insights
Removing user fees in 20 African countries could prevent over 230,000 child deaths annually. This policy change is a cost-effective strategy to improve child survival and healthcare access.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Health Economics
- Pediatric Mortality
Background:
- User fees for healthcare services can be a significant barrier to access, particularly for vulnerable populations.
- Child mortality remains a critical challenge in many African nations, necessitating effective interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the potential impact of eliminating user fees on child mortality in 20 African countries.
- To assess the feasibility of alternative financing mechanisms for healthcare.
Main Methods:
- A simulation model was employed, integrating data on health interventions and their effect on child mortality.
- Analysis focused on the relationship between user fee abolition and healthcare service utilization.
Main Results:
- Eliminating user fees could avert an estimated 233,000 deaths annually in children under five across 20 African countries.
- The estimated range for prevented deaths is 153,000 to 305,000 per year.
Conclusions:
- Abolishing user fees, supported by alternative financing, is a cost-effective strategy to enhance healthcare access.
- This policy shift is crucial for achieving the Millennium Development Goals for health, specifically reducing child mortality.
Objective:
To estimate how many child deaths might be prevented if user fees were removed in 20 African countries
Design:
Simulation model combining evidence on key health interventions' impacts on reducing child mortality with analysis of the effect of fee abolition on access to healthcare services.
Results:
Elimination of user fees could prevent approximately 233,000 (estimate range 153,000-305,000) deaths annually in children aged under 5 in 20 African countries.
Conclusion:
Given the relatively low cost of abolition, replacing user fees with alternative financing mechanisms should be seen as an effective first step towards improving households' access to health care and achieving the millennium development goals for health.
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