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Reasoning about conjunctive probabilistic concepts in childhood.

John E Fisk1, Rachel Slattery

  • 1School of Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, United Kingdom. j.e.fisk@livjm.ac.uk

Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology = Revue Canadienne De Psychologie Experimentale
|October 27, 2005
PubMed
Summary

Children can make correct probability judgments, but often commit the conjunction fallacy when events are unlikely. This cognitive bias, seen in children and adults, requires further research into its underlying mechanisms.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Development
  • Probability Judgment
  • Cognitive Biases

Background:

  • Adults exhibit biases in conjunctive probability judgments.
  • Childhood competencies in this area are not well understood.
  • The conjunction fallacy is a known cognitive bias.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate childhood abilities in conjunctive probability judgments.
  • To compare children's and adults' performance on these tasks.
  • To identify conditions under which children make normative judgments.

Main Methods:

  • Participants aged 4-5, 8-10 years, and adults judged the likelihood of single and conjunctive events.
  • Problems provided objective probabilities for component events.
  • Participants selected the more probable of two presented events.

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Main Results:

  • Children succeeded when the single event was likely.
  • A majority of children committed the conjunction fallacy when the single event was unlikely.
  • A significant minority of adults also exhibited the conjunction fallacy under similar conditions.

Conclusions:

  • Children demonstrate capacity for normative conjunctive judgments under specific conditions.
  • The conjunction fallacy occurs in children and adults when component events are unlikely.
  • Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms behind these judgment capabilities.