Paranormal belief, thinking style preference and susceptibility to confirmatory conjunction errors.

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Psychology
• Parapsychology
• Belief Studies

Background:

• Cognitive biases can influence reasoning, particularly in individuals holding paranormal beliefs.
• Understanding the interplay between belief systems and cognitive fallacies is crucial for cognitive science.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the predictive relationship between paranormal beliefs (ESP, PK, LAD) and the tendency to commit confirmatory conjunction errors.
• To examine the moderating roles of need for cognition (NFC) and faith in intuition (FI) on this relationship.
• To explore how event type (paranormal vs. non-paranormal) and outcome type (confirmatory vs. disconfirmatory) influence conjunction errors.

Main Methods:

• A sample of 261 participants completed 16 conjunction problems under varied conditions.
• Three Generalized Linear Mixed Models were employed to analyze the data, one for each paranormal belief type.
• Respondent gender and age were controlled for in the statistical models.

Main Results:

• Beliefs in ESP, PK, and LAD were significantly associated with making conjunction errors, particularly confirmatory ones.
• No significant impact of event type on the occurrence of conjunction errors was found.
• Individuals with a higher need for cognition were less prone to committing these reasoning fallacies.

Conclusions:

• Paranormal beliefs are linked to a greater susceptibility to confirmatory conjunction biases.
• Need for cognition plays a protective role against these cognitive errors.
• Thinking styles significantly shape how paranormal believers engage with and are affected by cognitive biases.