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Published on: January 8, 2020
Prior distributions for the intracluster correlation coefficient, based on multiple previous estimates, and their
Rebecca M Turner1, Simon G Thompson, David J Spiegelhalter
1MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge, UK. rebecca.turner@mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk
Researchers can now formally construct informative prior distributions for the intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC) using existing study data. This method improves cluster randomized trial planning by better utilizing previous ICC estimates.
Area of Science:
- Biostatistics
- Clinical Trials
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC) estimates are crucial for planning cluster randomized trials.
- Current methods for selecting an anticipated ICC value are informal and rely on previous estimates.
- A formal approach is needed to leverage the wealth of available ICC data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a formal method for constructing informative prior distributions for the ICC.
- To improve the precision of anticipated ICC values for cluster randomized trial design.
- To acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty surrounding ICC estimates.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing multiple relevant ICC estimates from completed studies.
- Developing a preferred model that accounts for imprecision in individual ICC estimates and similarity within studies.
- Downweighting less relevant previous ICC estimates based on outcome or population type.
Main Results:
- The proposed method formally constructs informative prior distributions for the ICC.
- Downweighting less relevant estimates increases the precision of the anticipated ICC.
- The approach allows for acknowledging uncertainty in ICC values during trial design.
Conclusions:
- The developed methods provide a practical way to summarize available ICC information into an informative prior distribution.
- This aids in selecting appropriate trial designs that ensure adequate power across likely ICC ranges.
- The informative prior can also be incorporated into Bayesian analyses of trial data.
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