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Experiences with the NUSAP system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment.

J van der Sluijs1, M Craye, S Funtowicz

  • 1Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, The Netherlands. j.p.vandersluijs@chem.uu.nl

Water Science and Technology : a Journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research
|November 25, 2005
PubMed
Summary

The NUSAP system effectively assesses multidimensional uncertainty, including model assumptions and societal factors. Its pedigree analysis aids in prioritizing uncertainties for better environmental problem management.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Risk Assessment
  • Decision Analysis

Background:

  • Assessing multidimensional uncertainty in complex environmental problems is challenging.
  • Existing methods often focus solely on parameter uncertainty, neglecting model assumptions and societal context.
  • The NUSAP system offers a framework for comprehensive uncertainty assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the practical application of the NUSAP system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment.
  • To demonstrate the utility of NUSAP's pedigree analysis for identifying and prioritizing uncertainties.
  • To explore the extension of NUSAP to incorporate societal dimensions of uncertainty for enhanced reflexivity and learning.

Main Methods:

  • Case studies of varying complexity were used to test the NUSAP system.

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  • NUSAP's pedigree analysis was applied to assess parameter uncertainty, model assumptions, and problem framing.
  • A diagnostic diagram was developed to synthesize quantitative and qualitative uncertainty analyses.
  • The pedigree scheme was extended to include societal dimensions like problem framing and value-laden assumptions.

    • Main Results:

    • NUSAP effectively assesses parameter uncertainty, model assumptions, and problem frames.
    • The diagnostic diagram synthesizes diverse uncertainty information, enabling prioritization based on knowledge limitations.
    • Extending NUSAP to include societal dimensions enhances reflexivity and collective learning.
    • NUSAP facilitates a deeper social debate and negotiated management of complex environmental issues.

    Conclusions:

    • The NUSAP system, particularly its pedigree analysis, is a valuable tool for multidimensional uncertainty assessment in environmental science.
    • Integrating societal dimensions into uncertainty assessment fosters greater understanding and collaborative problem-solving.
    • NUSAP supports informed decision-making and adaptive management of complex environmental challenges.