Lognormal distribution of epiphytic bacterial populations on leaf surfaces

Total populations of epiphytic bacteria and selected components thereof were determined on sets of 24 to 36 individual leaves (corn, rye) or leaflets (snap bean, soybean, tomato) of field-grown plants by washing and dilution plating. In general, levels of component populations (e.g., bacteria that are ice nucleation active) were quantitatively more variable from leaf to leaf within a set than were total epiphytic bacterial populations. Populations of a given component frequently varied by a factor of 100 to 1,000 within a set of leaves. Total bacterial populations usually varied by a factor of about 10. For each set of leaves, total and component epiphytic bacterial populations were found to approximate a lognormal distribution by the Shapiro-Wilk test for normality. Due to the lognormal distribution of epiphytic bacterial populations, estimates of population size based on the common practice of using bulked samples (wherein several leaves are washed together) will overestimate the population median by a factor of approximately 1.15sigma. From the known probability distribution of bacterial populations, the frequency with which a given bacterial population size is met or exceeded on individual leaves can be estimated. If the bacterial component is phytopathogenic, the frequency estimates could be used to relate quantitatively pathogen populations and disease incidence.