Trends and patterns in prostate cancer mortality in Belgrade, Serbia: a join-point analysis

The objective of this analysis was to examine recent changes in prostate cancer mortality among the male population of Belgrade, Serbia, during the period 1975-2002. Mortality data (official death certificates) for prostate cancer were gathered from published and unpublished material of the Municipal Institute of Statistics in Belgrade. Mortality rates were standardized according to the European standard population. Trends in mortality rates were assessed using join-point analysis. During the period from 1975 to 2002 in the population of Belgrade the average age-adjusted mortality rate from prostate cancer during this period was 17.5/100,000 (95% confidence interval, 15.4-19.6), ranging from 8.2/100,000 in 1984 to 31.2/100,000 in 2002. Since 1986 mortality rates among men aged 50 years and over have risen by nearly 6% per year, with the increases being slightly higher among older men (70 years and over 8% per year) compared to younger men (50-69 years, 4% per year). Mortality due to prostate cancer is rising quickly among men in Belgrade. This level of increase is the highest of any reported increase internationally and contrasts sharply with the widespread decrease in prostate cancer mortality in many developed countries.