Use of survival analysis as a tool for the genetic improvement of age at first conception in Nellore cattle

Restricted breeding seasons in beef cattle lead to censoring of reproductive data. In this paper, age at first conception (AFC) of Nellore females exposed to the sires for the first time between 11 and 16 months of age, was studied aiming to verify the possibility of genetically advance sexual precocity using a survival model. The final data set contained 6699 records of AFC in days. Records of females that did not calve in the next year following exposure to the sire were considered censored (77.5% of total). The model used was a Weibull mixed survival model including effects of contemporary groups, period (fixed) and animal (random). The effect of the contemporary groups on AFC was important (p < 0.01). Heritabilities were 0.51 and 0.76 in logarithmic and original scales respectively. Results indicate that it is possible to genetically advance sexual precocity, using the outcome of survival analysis of AFC as selection criterion. They also suggest that improvements of the environment could advance sexual precocity too, thus an adequate pregnancy rate for farmers could quickly be achieved.