Does PSA velocity predict prostate cancer in pre-screened populations?

PSA-driven screening has been applied to a large part of the male population in many countries. An elevated PSA in secondary screens may indicate benign enlargement of the prostate rather than prostate cancer. In such cases the yearly rate of increase of PSA (PSA velocity [PSAV]) may improve the test characteristics of PSA.

Data from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer Rotterdam are used to study the issue. Relative sensitivity, relative specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) are calculated. Logistic regression analysis is used to compare odds ratios for positive biopsies. The relationship between PSAV and parameters of tumour aggressiveness is investigated.

Five hundred eighty-eight consecutive participants were identified who presented at their first screening with PSA values <4.0 and who progressed to PSA values >4.0 ng/ml four years later. None were biopsied in round one, all were biopsied in round two. Relative sensitivity and specificity depend strongly on PSAV cut-offs of 0.25-1.0 ng/ml/yr. The use of PSAV cut-offs does not improve the PPV of the PSA cut-off of 4.0 ng/ml, nor do any of the PSAV cut-offs improve the odds ratio for identifying prostate cancer with respect to the cut-off value of 4.0 ng/ml. The rate of aggressive cancers seems to increase with increasing PSAV.

PSAV does not improve the detection characteristics of a PSA cut-off of 4.0 ng/ml in secondary screening after four years.