Recent changes in the spatial pattern of prostate cancer in the U.S

Spatial-temporal trends in prostate cancer mortality are of interest because of the introduction and increasing use of the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening test after 1986. This article describes spatial-temporal changes in U.S. prostate cancer mortality from 1968 to 1998.

Prostate cancer mortality data were obtained from Compressed Mortality Files available from the National Center for Health Statistics. To minimize potential problems such as small numbers or missing data, the analysis was limited to white males aged 25 and over, and located in 2970 counties with complete data. Statistical analyses included the global distance between observed and expected multinomial probabilities, Hoover's Index of Concentration, and a retrospective test for change in spatial patterns.

Fairly steady declines were observed in prostate cancer mortality from 1968 until 1993, with an increasing tendency toward spatial uniformity. Spatial concentration increased from 1994 to 1998, and by 1998 the level of spatial concentration had returned to levels that prevailed during the early to mid-1980s. Comparing 1991-1998 to 1968-1990, the observed number of prostate deaths increased the most rapidly with respect to the expected number in western Appalachia and the south central U.S. Recent relative declines in mortality were observed in southern California and parts of Florida.

The observed results are generally consistent with prior evaluations of prostate cancer spatial-temporal patterns. However, the current study identified a heretofore unnoticed recent pattern of change in western Appalachia and the south central U.S. Recent declines in Florida and southern California may have contributed to recent increases in spatial concentration of prostate cancer mortality, and may possibly be associated with realized benefits from screening programs.