Memory hazard functions: a vehicle for theory development and test

A framework is developed to rigorously test an entire class of memory retention functions by examining hazard properties. Evidence is provided that the memory hazard function is not monotonically decreasing. Yet most of the proposals for retention functions, which have emerged from the psychological literature, imply that memory hazard is monotonically decreasing over the entire temporal range. Furthermore, the few remaining proposals, that do not have monotonically decreasing hazard, have difficulty fitting data over both short-term and long-term intervals. A new 2-trace hazard model is developed that successfully circumvents these difficulties. This new model is used to account for the size of memory span and the time course of proactive and retroactive interference effects. The model can fit the retention characteristics of H. M., the famous amnesic patient, as well as normal experimental participants. The model is also used to account for the time course of the misinformation effect.