A hypothesis test for the end of a common source outbreak
Related Experiment Video
Updated: Aug 10, 2026

Monitoring Influenza Virus Survival Outside the Host Using Real-Time Cell Analysis
Published on: February 20, 2021
1Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland 21205, USA. rbrook@jhsph.edu
Abstract:
The objective of this article is to develop a hypothesis-testing procedure to determine whether a common source outbreak has ended. We consider the case when neither the calendar date of exposure to the pathogen nor the exact incubation period distribution is known. The hypothesis-testing procedure is based on the spacings between ordered calendar dates of disease onset of the cases. A simulation study was performed to evaluate the robustness of the methods to various models for the incubation period of infectious diseases. We investigated the impact of multiple testing on the overall outbreak-wise type I error probability. We derive expressions for the outbreak-wise type I error probability and show that multiple testing has minimal effect on inflating that error probability. The results are discussed in the context of the 2001 U.S. anthrax outbreak.
More Related Videos
09:32Evaluating the Effect of Coated Filters and Pre-Filters on the Infectivity and Concentration of Aerosolized Phi6 Virus
Published on: May 29, 2026
06:11Rapid Detection of Bacterial Pathogens Causing Lower Respiratory Tract Infections via Microfluidic-Chip-Based Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification
Published on: March 29, 2024
Related Concept Videos
Investigation of Disease Outbreaks
Types of Hypothesis Testing
When the null and alternative hypotheses are stated, it is observed that the null hypothesis is a neutral statement against which the alternative hypothesis is tested. The alternative hypothesis is a claim that instead has a certain direction. If the null hypothesis claims that p = 0.5, the alternative hypothesis would be an opposing statement to this and can be put either p > 0.5, p < 0.5, or p ≠ 0.5.
Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Statistical significance measures the probability that an observed result occurred by chance. If this probability, known as...
What is a Hypothesis?
Decision Making: Traditional Method
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is decided based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to this claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses, out of which a null hypothesis would be a...
Null and Alternative Hypotheses
The null hypothesis, denoted by H0 is a statement of no difference between the variables—they are not related. This can often be considered the status quo. As a result if you cannot accept the null, it requires some action.
The alternative hypothesis, denoted by H1 or Ha, is a claim about the population that is...