[Prognosis of remote consequences of combat mental trauma using logical statistical methods]

Prognosis of remote consequences of acute stress disorders and adaptation disorders as posttraumatic stress disorders (PTSD) is possible using relevant mathematical methods. The authors have used the following logical statistical methods: algorithms for search and statistical verification of optimal fragmentation of variables in multi-dimensional space ("Q-nearest neighbors", "statistically weighed syndromes") as well as a program of searching for multiple conjunctions of variables that allowed to single out statistically significant combinations of variables (p<0,001) and to divide the sample into two groups: with favorable and with unfavorable outcome both at the acute and remote stages of mental trauma. Predictors of unfavorable outcome found in the acute period of mental trauma were as follows: affective tension, impulsivity, high personal anxiety and depressive tendencies with reduced activity. Comparing to clinical evaluation, subjective criteria of mental state (self-rating) retained its informativeness for prognosis of protracted PTSD types. Using this set of variables, it became possible to predictt remote consequences (2-4 years) of psychogenias of combat situation with reliability of recognition of 85% for the favorable outcome and 79% for cases of protracted types.