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Discrepancies in cancer mortality estimates
Ernesto Goldman1, James L Fisher
1Department of Anesthesiology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210, USA. goldman.1@osu.edu
Archives of Medical Research
|April 21, 2006
Summary
Cancer survival probability (PD) trends differ from population mortality rates. While mortality decreased for colorectal and lung cancers, PD did not show comparable improvement, indicating PD is a more accurate measure of progress.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Biostatistics
- Public Health
Background:
- Cancer-associated mortality rates are commonly used to estimate progress.
- Population-based mortality trends may not accurately reflect patient outcomes over time.
- Individual patient data offers a different perspective on survival.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare cancer survival probability (PD) trends with population mortality rates.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of using mortality rates as the sole indicator of cancer progress.
- To analyze survival data for colorectal and lung cancers.
Main Methods:
- Calculated probability of death (PD), 5-year survival probability, and median survival time using SEER Program data.
- Obtained annual age-adjusted U.S. mortality rates from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).
- Analyzed trends for colorectal and lung/bronchus cancers from diagnosis year.
Main Results:
- Colorectal cancer PD decreased 4.3% (1985-1997), while mortality dropped 20%.
- Lung cancer mortality decreased 2.5% (1991-1997), but PD decreased only 0.79%.
- PD at yearly intervals did not improve comparably to the reduction in mortality rates.
Conclusions:
- Cancer mortality rates alone may be misleading indicators of progress.
- Probability of death (PD) provides a more direct measure of patient survival trends.
- Survival probability and PD are inversely related, as expected.
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