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Another look at interpreting risk categories.

Douglas Mossman1

  • 1Division of Forensic Psychiatry, Boonshoft School of Medicine, Wright State University, Dayton, Ohio, USA. douglas.mossman@wright.edu

Sexual Abuse : a Journal of Research and Treatment
|April 28, 2006
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Summary

Risk assessment tools for sex offenders can be misleading if base rates are ignored. This study explains how to properly interpret recidivism probabilities by examining detection properties independently of population-specific base rates.

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Psychology
  • Criminology
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • Sex offender risk assessment scales accurately rank recidivism risk.
  • Translating risk categories into probabilities is crucial for clinical and research applications.
  • Previous work suggested using published recidivism percentages without accounting for population differences.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explain why using raw recidivism percentages across studies can be misleading.
  • To describe how to isolate and examine the detection properties of risk assessment instruments.
  • To illustrate the process of estimating recidivism probabilities independent of base rates.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of existing studies on risk assessment instruments (RRASOR and STATIC-99).
  • Explanation of the concept of detection properties.
  • Illustration using an imaginary study to demonstrate probability estimation.
  • Examination of how base rates influence recidivism percentages.

Main Results:

  • Simply comparing recidivism percentages across studies can mislead researchers and clinicians.
  • Detection properties of risk assessment instruments should be examined independently of population-specific base rates.
  • Recidivism percentages associated with risk scores can vary significantly across different study populations.

Conclusions:

  • Evaluators should not use published recidivism percentages without considering population differences and base rates.
  • Understanding detection properties is key to accurate risk assessment.
  • Recommendations are provided for researchers and clinicians using actuarial risk assessment methods.