Towards a simulation environment for modeling of local influenza outbreaks

To analyze the design of a simulation environment for dynamic prediction of influenza transmission in local communities.

The technique trade-off method was used to identify and analyze basic design requirements on a simulation environment for modeling of influenza transmission. Data were collected through literature review and interviews with infectious disease experts. The identified requirements were matched to a set of design issues for the simulation environment,and a high-resolution prototype was implemented.

Basic reproductive numbers for influenza transmission in a set of Swedish municipalities were calculated. Tradeoffs were necessary in the design between a focus on reproductive numbers vs. case fatality proportions, algorithm validity vs. model adaptability, and specificity in population description vs. generalizability.

Computer-based simulations can become important tools for local authorities preparing for influenza outbreaks. Balanced tradeoffs between model detail and public health effectiveness are important in simulation environment design.