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Updated: Jul 31, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Markov model of haploid random mating with given distribution of population size
Peder A Tyvand1, Steinar Thorvaldsen
1Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, 1432, As, Norway.
Abstract:
An exact Markov chain model is formulated and computed for random mating in a haploid gamete pool. There are two versions of the gamete, and there is a finite number of diploid monoecious organisms. The founder population is given, and the subsequent generations allow a prescribed statistical distribution over different population sizes. The non-homogeneous Markov chain works on the haploid gamete level provided the probability of self-fertilization is 1/n, where n is the number of diploid individuals. Standard deviations of gamete frequencies and fixation probabilities are calculated. Effective population sizes for different population size distributions are estimated, including periodic bottlenecks.
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