Order and chaos in fixed-interval schedules of reinforcement

Fixed-interval schedule performance is characterized by high levels of variability. Responding is absent at the onset of the interval and gradually increases in frequency until reinforcer delivery. Measures of behavior also vary drastically and unpredictably between successive intervals. Recent advances in the study of nonlinear dynamics have allowed researchers to study irregular and unpredictable behavior in a number of fields. This paper reviews several concepts and techniques from nonlinear dynamics and examines their utility in predicting the behavior of pigeons responding to a fixed-interval schedule of reinforcement. The analysis provided fairly accurate a priori accounts of response rates, accounting for 92.8% of the variance when predicting response rate 1 second in the future and 64% of the variance when predicting response rates for each second over the entire next interreinforcer interval. The nonlinear dynamics account suggests that even the "noisiest" behavior might be the product of purely deterministic mechanisms.