[Threats as precursors of violent crimes]

Threats are frequent events. For example, in Switzerland in 2002 they accounted for 2.8% of all registered instantaneous crimes and showed a marked increase. Only a small proportion of threats are actually executed. On the other hand, many serious, violent crimes are preceded by threats. Therefore, the question repeatedly arises as to whether the crime could have been prevented by an adequate assessment of the threat. Even if threatening behavior is not a sufficient or necessary precursor to violent crime, it is advisable to take every threat seriously and to carry out a risk assessment. There is far-reaching agreement on the necessity of threat analysis, especially since there is practical evidence that professional risk analysis can prevent criminal acts. Since the baseline rate for grievous violent crime is very low, it is not possible for threat analysis to rely on profile-oriented (static) procedures. Rather, a process-oriented approach is indicated, whereby each threat is assessed in its individual context. Investigations so far have presented findings relating to different aspect of threats that can be helpful in the evaluation of specific, individual cases. In addition to specific analysis of the characteristics of the threat, it is essential to perform a detailed analysis of the relationship between the offender and the victim and of the offender's personality. It is to be expected that more extensive research will make it possible to benefit from an as yet inadequately exploited potential to prevent violent crime.