Development of a rating scale to predict the severity of alcohol withdrawal syndrome

Various factors that may influence the severity of the alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) have been identified. We tested the predictive value of these factors compiled in a newly developed scale, LARS (Luebeck alcohol withdrawal risk scale).

A total of 100 individuals (81 males, 19 females, mean age: 47.6 +/- 9.9 years) consecutively transferred to inpatient detoxification were included in this prospective study. All fulfilled the ICD-10 criteria for alcohol dependence. The LARS was applied at the time of admission. The course of the AWS was assessed by AWS-scale at least every 4 h. The maximum AWS-score was taken as indicator of the severity of AWS.

The mean AWS-score(max) was 6.5 +/- 3.3. In all 20% of the patients developed a severe AWS (AWS-score(max) > or =10). The maximum score usually occurred within 36 h after the last drink. A short version, the LARS11, was developed by statistically grounded item reduction. The optimal cut-off of the LARS11 was calculated as 10. The positive predictive value for severe AWS was 76%, while the negative predictive value was 98.7%. The sensitivity and specificity were high (95 or 92.5%, respectively).

LARS11 assessed immediately before detoxification appears to provide a useful estimate of mild/moderate versus severe AWS, and is now ready to be validated in an independent sample.