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Related Experiment Videos

Global temperature change.

James Hansen1, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy

  • 1National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University Earth Institute, and Sigma Space Partners, Inc., 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA. jhansen@giss.nasa.gov

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|September 27, 2006
PubMed
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Global surface temperatures are rising rapidly, mirroring early climate model predictions. Exceeding 1 degree C warming risks dangerous climate change impacts like sea level rise and species extinction.

Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Paleoclimatology
  • Oceanography

Background:

  • Global surface temperature shows a significant warming trend of approximately 0.2°C per decade over the last 30 years.
  • This warming rate aligns with early global climate model (GCM) simulations incorporating transient greenhouse gas increases.
  • Warming trends reveal a greater increase in the Western Equatorial Pacific compared to the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze global and regional temperature trends in the context of climate change.
  • To investigate the potential link between changing Pacific temperature gradients and El Niño events.
  • To assess current global temperatures against paleoclimate data and define thresholds for dangerous climate change.

Main Methods:

Related Experiment Videos

  • Analysis of global surface temperature data over the past 30 years.
  • Comparison of Western and Eastern Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) with paleoclimate records.
  • Evaluation of current global temperatures relative to Holocene and past million-year maxima.

    • Main Results:

    • Global warming is occurring at a rate consistent with 1980s climate model predictions.
    • An increased West-East temperature gradient in the Equatorial Pacific may be linked to more frequent strong El Niño events.
    • Current global temperatures are approaching Holocene maxima and are within 1°C of the highest temperatures recorded in the past million years.

    Conclusions:

    • Global warming exceeding approximately 1°C relative to the year 2000 is projected to cause dangerous climate change.
    • Potential impacts include significant sea level rise and widespread species extinction.
    • The Western Pacific's current warmth is comparable to the Holocene maximum, highlighting the urgency of climate change concerns.