Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics
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Updated: Jul 19, 2026

Laboratory Techniques Used to Maintain and Differentiate Biotypes of Vibrio cholerae Clinical and Environmental Isolates
Published on: May 30, 2017
Katia Koelle1, Mercedes Pascual, Md Yunus
1The Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2019 Kraus Natural Science Building, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1048, USA. kkoelle@umich.edu
Abstract:
Interest in understanding strain diversity and its impact on disease dynamics has grown over the past decade. Theoretical disease models of several co-circulating strains indicate that incomplete cross-immunity generates conditions for strain-cycling behaviour at the population level. However, there have been no quantitative analyses of disease time-series that are clear examples of theoretically expected strain cycling. Here, we analyse a 40-year (1966-2005) cholera time-series from Bangladesh to determine whether patterns evident in these data are compatible with serotype-cycling behaviour. A mathematical two-serotype model is capable of explaining the oscillations in case patterns when cross-immunity between the two serotypes, Inaba and Ogawa, is high. Further support that cholera's serotype-cycling arises from population-level immunity patterns is provided by calculations of time-varying effective reproductive rates. These results shed light on historically observed serotype dominance shifts and have important implications for cholera early warning systems.
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