Evaluation of three 3ABC ELISAs for foot-and-mouth disease non-structural antibodies using latent class analysis

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of even-toed ungulates. Serological diagnosis/surveillance of FMD presents several problems as there are seven serotypes worldwide and in the event of vaccination it may be necessary to be able to identify FMD infected/exposed animals irrespective of their vaccination status. The recent development of non-structural 3ABC protein (NSP) ELISA tests has greatly advanced sero-diagnosis/surveillance as these tests detect exposure to live virus for any of the seven serotypes of FMD, even in vaccinated populations. This paper analyses the performance of three NSP tests using a Bayesian formulation of the Hui-Walter latent class model to estimate test sensitivity and specificity in the absence of a "gold-standard" test, using sera from a well described cattle population in Cameroon with endemic FMD.

The analysis found a high sensitivity and specificity for both the Danish C-ELISA and the World Organisation for Animal Health (O.I.E.) recommended South American I-ELISA. However, the commercial CHEKIT kit, though having high specificity, has very low sensitivity. The results of the study suggests that for NSP ELISAs, latent class models are a useful alternative to the traditional approach of evaluating diagnostic tests against a known "gold-standard" test as imperfections in the "gold-standard" may give biased test characteristics.

This study demonstrates that when applied to naturally infected zebu cattle managed under extensive rangeland conditions, the FMD ELISAs may not give the same parameter estimates as those generated from experimental studies. The Bayesian approach allows for full posterior probabilities and capture of the uncertainty in the estimates. The implications of an imperfect specificity are important for the design and interpretation of sero-surveillance data and may result in excessive numbers of false positives in low prevalence situations unless a follow-up confirmatory test such as the enzyme linked immunoelectrotransfer blot (EITB) is used.