Long-term survival after carotid endarterectomy for asymptomatic stenosis

Large randomized trials have demonstrated a net benefit of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis compared with best medical treatment. However, it takes years to overcome the perioperative risk and gain the reduction in stroke or death risk. Long-term survival after CEA for asymptomatic stenosis may be an important consideration in deciding on this prophylactic procedure, but is not well documented. The aim was to analyze long-term survival after CEA for asymptomatic stenosis and the impact of risk factors in a population-based study.

The Swedish vascular registry (Swedvasc) covers all centers performing CEA. Data on all registered CEAs during 1994 to 2003 were retrieved. All patients were cross-matched with the Population-Registry for accurate data on mortality (date of death). Analyses with Kaplan-Meier curves for survival and relative odds ratio (OR) for predictors of survival were performed.

A total of 6169 CEAs in 5808 patients were registered, with a median time at risk of 5.1 (range, 0.1 to 11.8) years. The indication for CEA was asymptomatic stenosis in 10.8% of the patients. Survival after CEA for asymptomatic stenosis was 78.2% after 5 and 45.5% after 10 years. Previous vascular surgery (OR, 1.8; 1.1 to 3.0), cardiac disease (OR, 1.7; 1.0 to 2.8), diabetes mellitus (OR, 2.3; 1.3 to 4.1), and age (OR, 1.5; 1.1 to 2.1 per 10 years) were predictors of decreased 5-year survival.

In this population-based study of patients operated on for asymptomatic stenosis, a substantial reduction in long-term survival was observed. Predictors of decreased longevity were age at operation, diabetes, cardiac disease, and previous vascular surgery.