Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jul 19, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
Uncertain numbers and uncertainty in the selection of input distributions--consequences for a probabilistic risk
Per Sander1, Bo Bergbäck, Tomas Oberg
1Department of Biology and Environmental Science, University of Kalmar, Kalmar, Sweden.
Abstract:
Risks from exposure to contaminated land are often assessed with the aid of mathematical models. The current probabilistic approach is a considerable improvement on previous deterministic risk assessment practices, in that it attempts to characterize uncertainty and variability. However, some inputs continue to be assigned as precise numbers, while others are characterized as precise probability distributions. Such precision is hard to justify, and we show in this article how rounding errors and distribution assumptions can affect an exposure assessment. The outcome of traditional deterministic point estimates and Monte Carlo simulations were compared to probability bounds analyses. Assigning all scalars as imprecise numbers (intervals prescribed by significant digits) added uncertainty to the deterministic point estimate of about one order of magnitude. Similarly, representing probability distributions as probability boxes added several orders of magnitude to the uncertainty of the probabilistic estimate. This indicates that the size of the uncertainty in such assessments is actually much greater than currently reported. The article suggests that full disclosure of the uncertainty may facilitate decision making in opening up a negotiation window. In the risk analysis process, it is also an ethical obligation to clarify the boundary between the scientific and social domains.
More Related Videos
Related Concept Videos
Uncertainty: Overview
Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error
Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error
Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals
Contaminants and Errors
Another key consideration is determining the appropriate number of samples required to...
Types of Biopharmaceutical Studies: Controlled and Non-Controlled Approaches
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast, controlled...

