Noise contribution to the correlation between temperature-induced localized reflectance of diabetic skin and blood...

We used the effect of temperature on the localized reflectance of human skin to assess the role of noise sources on the correlation between temperature-induced fractional change in optical density of human skin (DeltaOD(T)) and blood glucose concentration [BG]. Two temperature-controlled optical probes at 30 degrees C contacted the skin, one was then cooled by -10 degrees C; the other was heated by +10 degrees C. DeltaOD(T) upon cooling or heating was correlated with capillary [BG] of diabetic volunteers over a period of three days. Calibration models in the first two days were used to predict [BG] in the third day. We examined the conditions where the correlation coefficient (R2) for predicting [BG] in a third day ranked higher than R2 values resulting from fitting permutations of randomized [BG] to the same DeltaOD(T) values. It was possible to establish a four-term linear regression correlation between DeltaOD(T) upon cooling and [BG] with a correlation coefficient higher than that of an established noise threshold in diabetic patients that were mostly females with less than 20 years of diabetes duration. The ability to predict [BG] values with a correlation coefficient above biological and body-interface noise varied between the cases of cooling and heating.