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Predicting emergency evacuation and sheltering behavior: a structured analytical approach.

Matt Dombroski1, Baruch Fischhoff, Paul Fischbeck

  • 1Carnegie Mellon University, Engineering and Public Policy, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|December 23, 2006
PubMed
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Predicting public compliance with emergency recommendations is possible using a formal risk assessment model. Expert judgments refine predictions, showing high compliance for evacuations but lower rates for sheltering, influenced by media and policy.

Area of Science:

  • Risk assessment and behavioral science
  • Emergency management and public policy
  • Social science research

Background:

  • Public compliance with emergency directives is crucial for effective disaster response.
  • Existing risk assessment models often lack robust behavioral components.
  • Understanding factors influencing public behavior is key to improving preparedness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a general approach for predicting public compliance with emergency recommendations.
  • To integrate social science insights into formal risk assessment frameworks.
  • To provide actionable data for emergency coordinators to anticipate citizen behavior.

Main Methods:

  • Formal risk assessment incorporating social science factors.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Elicitation of expert judgments on behavior and dependencies during emergencies.
  • Case study application using a simulated radiological dispersion device (RDD) scenario.
  • Analysis of factors influencing compliance, including recommendation type and media influence.

    • Main Results:

    • High predicted compliance (80-90%) for workplace evacuation orders.
    • Moderate predicted compliance (60-70%) for sheltering in place at home.
    • Reduced compliance (approx. 10% lower) for sheltering at offices or home evacuations.
    • Skeptical media predicted to lower compliance by 10%.
    • Identified preparatory policies could increase compliance by 20-30%.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed approach provides a framework for predicting public response to emergencies.
    • Expert-informed risk assessment can significantly enhance emergency preparedness.
    • Policy interventions and supportive media are critical for maximizing public compliance.
    • Findings have implications for improving disaster response models, exemplified by Hurricane Katrina.