Prediction of one-hour running performance using constant duration tests.

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Exercise Physiology
• Biomechanics

Background:

• Critical velocity (CV) is theoretically the maximum sustainable velocity without fatigue.
• Accurate CV estimation is crucial for predicting endurance performance in runners.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare five mathematical models for estimating CV.
• To determine which CV model best correlates with 1-hour running performance.
• To assess the accuracy of CV models in predicting 1-hour performance.

Main Methods:

• Twelve trained male middle- and long-distance runners participated.
• Participants completed constant duration tests (6, 9, 12 min) and a maximal velocity test.
• CV was estimated using two linear, two nonlinear, and one exponential model.
• Actual 1-hour track performance was measured.

Main Results:

• All CV estimates showed significant correlation with 1-hour performance (r > 0.80).
• The exponential model demonstrated the highest correlation (r = 0.93, p < 0.01).
• No model accurately predicted 1-hour performance velocity, with significant bias observed.

Conclusions:

• CV estimation effectively ranks middle- and long-distance runners' endurance capabilities.
• Current CV models, including the exponential one, do not provide precise performance predictions for training guidance.