[Prediction of fatal outcome in severe injury]

The paper reflects the results of a study to predict a fatal outcome in severe injury, by evaluating the condition by the APACHE II, SAPS II, MODS, SOFA, and Glasgow coma scale. Particular emphasis is laid on the assessment of the quality of an obtained prediction, by using the currently available tools--the resolving power of a prognostic model (area under the characteristic curve), choice of the prognostive value (division point), and calibration of the model. It was ascertained that the APACHE II and SAPS II scales could not significantly predict a fatal outcome in severe injury. Based on the scores obtained by the SOFA, MODS, and Glasgow coma scales, the authors developed prognostic indices that provide a high significance in predicting the fatal outcome in severe injury both within the first 24 hours and over time. The independent predictor of a fatal outcome (hypernatriemia) in severe injury was identified.