Ophthalmology human resource projections: are we heading for a crisis in the next 15 years?

Ophthalmology residency positions have increased in recent years. This study looks at whether the expansion is enough to avoid shortages in the future.

The Canadian Medical Association Physician Resource Evaluation Template was used to project the supply of ophthalmologists up to 2016, assuming a status quo scenario in terms of attrition and gain factors.

The ratio of ophthalmologists to population is steadily declining but not as fast as previously projected.

With the scenario presented, the supply of ophthalmologists will be inadequate in the future. Expanding Canadian residency training programs to their maximum capacity will maintain the current national ophthalmologist-to-population ratio but will still not be enough to meet the demand for ophthalmology services because of the shift in demographics as baby boomers age.