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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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Does concern-driven risk management provide a viable alternative to QRA?

Louis Anthony Tony Cox1

  • 1Cox Associates, 503 Franklin Street, Denver, CO 80218, USA. tony@cox-associates.com

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|March 17, 2007
PubMed
Summary

Concern-driven risk management uses expert judgment over quantitative risk assessment (QRA). While offering political and psychological benefits, its effectiveness in protecting health compared to QRA requires further evaluation.

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Area of Science:

  • Risk Management
  • Decision Science
  • Public Health Policy

Background:

  • Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) relies on formal, numerical evaluation of consequences.
  • Concern-driven risk management prioritizes perceived urgency and expert judgment over quantification.
  • Critics advocate for concern-driven approaches, especially in precautionary principle applications.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the effectiveness of concern-driven risk management with QRA.
  • To evaluate the performance of judgment-based decision-making under risk and uncertainty.
  • To assess whether concern-driven alternatives offer superior outcomes to QRA.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of case studies in applied risk management.
  • Review of psychological literature on judgment-based decision-making.
  • Comparative evaluation of risk management paradigms.

Main Results:

  • Concern-driven risk management presents potential political and psychological advantages.
  • It is not definitively established that concern-driven approaches outperform QRA in protecting human health.
  • The empirical performance of judgment-based methods requires careful consideration.

Conclusions:

  • Advocates for replacing QRA should empirically validate the superiority of concern-driven alternatives.
  • The criterion for evaluating risk management is the successful achievement of desired consequences.
  • Further research is needed to confirm the practical benefits of concern-driven risk management over QRA.