Forecasting New Zealand Mudsnail invasion range: model comparisons using native and invaded ranges

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Invasive Species Biology
• Biogeography

Background:

• Ecological niche models predict invasive species distribution.
• Models typically use native range data, but this can be limited by historical and geographical factors.
• The New Zealand mudsnail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum) is an invasive freshwater species.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict the potential distribution of Potamopyrgus antipodarum in Australia and North America.
• To compare the efficacy of ecological niche models trained on native versus invaded range data.
• To assess the impact of data selection on model predictions for invasive species.

Main Methods:

• Ecological niche modeling using the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP).
• Model training with occurrence data from the native range (New Zealand) and invaded ranges (Australia).
• Time-series analysis of Australian models to evaluate prediction accuracy.

Main Results:

• Models trained with invaded range data provided stronger predictions for Potamopyrgus antipodarum distribution than those trained with native range data.
• Significant discrepancies between model forecasts highlight the risk of misleading predictions due to uncritical data selection.
• GARP models predict substantial range expansion for P. antipodarum in Australia and North America.

Conclusions:

• Utilizing range-of-invasion data enhances the accuracy of ecological niche models for invasive species management.
• Rapid implementation of prevention measures is crucial to mitigate the predicted expansion of Potamopyrgus antipodarum.
• Careful consideration of training data is essential for reliable invasive species distribution modeling.