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Forecasting New Zealand Mudsnail invasion range: model comparisons using native and invaded ranges.

Sarina E Loo1, Ralph Mac Nally, P S Lake

  • 1Australian Centre for Biodiversity: Analysis, Policy and Management, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, 3800, Australia.

Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
|May 8, 2007
PubMed
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Using invasive species data improves ecological niche models for predicting the spread of the New Zealand mudsnail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum). This aids in efficient management and prevention of invasive species.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Invasive Species Biology
  • Biogeography

Background:

  • Ecological niche models predict invasive species distribution.
  • Models typically use native range data, but this can be limited by historical and geographical factors.
  • The New Zealand mudsnail (Potamopyrgus antipodarum) is an invasive freshwater species.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict the potential distribution of Potamopyrgus antipodarum in Australia and North America.
  • To compare the efficacy of ecological niche models trained on native versus invaded range data.
  • To assess the impact of data selection on model predictions for invasive species.

Main Methods:

  • Ecological niche modeling using the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP).
  • Model training with occurrence data from the native range (New Zealand) and invaded ranges (Australia).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Time-series analysis of Australian models to evaluate prediction accuracy.

    • Main Results:

    • Models trained with invaded range data provided stronger predictions for Potamopyrgus antipodarum distribution than those trained with native range data.
    • Significant discrepancies between model forecasts highlight the risk of misleading predictions due to uncritical data selection.
    • GARP models predict substantial range expansion for P. antipodarum in Australia and North America.

    Conclusions:

    • Utilizing range-of-invasion data enhances the accuracy of ecological niche models for invasive species management.
    • Rapid implementation of prevention measures is crucial to mitigate the predicted expansion of Potamopyrgus antipodarum.
    • Careful consideration of training data is essential for reliable invasive species distribution modeling.