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Births and cohort size.

J de Beer1

  • 1Department for Population Statistics, Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Voorburg.

Social Biology
|January 1, 1991
PubMed
Summary
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The Easterlin model of fertility was tested using Dutch data. While the Easterlin effect influences birth trends, a declining family size trend is more significant, forecasting a rise in births until 2000.

Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Sociology
  • Economics

Background:

  • Easterlin's relative-cohort-size model suggests cohort size influences fertility.
  • Previous research by Ahlburg (1983, 1986) indicated the model's strong fit with U.S. and Canadian post-war data.
  • Ahlburg's model was considered oversimplified.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present and test an alternative specification of the Easterlin relative-cohort-size model.
  • To apply the refined model to Dutch post-war fertility data (1950-1985).
  • To identify key drivers of fertility changes in the Netherlands.

Main Methods:

  • Development of an alternative, less simplified, specification of the Easterlin model.
  • Empirical application of the model to Dutch demographic and fertility data from 1950 to 1985.
Keywords:
AttitudeBehaviorBirth RateDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEconomic Conditions--changesEconomic FactorsEstimation TechnicsEuropeFamily And HouseholdFamily CharacteristicsFamily SizeFamily Size, Desired--changesFertilityFertility MeasurementsGoalsIncomeMacroeconomic FactorsMathematical ModelModels, TheoreticalNetherlandsOrganization And AdministrationPlanningPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation ForecastPopulation GrowthPsychological FactorsQuality Of LifeResearch MethodologyResearch ReportSocial WelfareSocioeconomic FactorsWestern Europe

Related Experiment Videos

  • Comparative analysis of the Easterlin effect versus long-term trends in family size.

    • Main Results:

    • The Easterlin effect was found to impact Dutch birth movements between 1950 and 1985.
    • A declining long-term trend in average family size was identified as a more dominant factor explaining post-war fertility.
    • The refined model forecasts an increase in births through the year 2000.

    Conclusions:

    • The Easterlin model, when refined, offers insights into fertility dynamics.
    • Long-term demographic trends, such as decreasing family size, play a crucial role in fertility fluctuations.
    • The study provides a forecast for rising birth rates in the Netherlands.