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A Restriction Enzyme Based Cloning Method to Assess the In vitro Replication Capacity of HIV-1 Subtype C Gag-MJ4 Chimeric Viruses
Published on: August 31, 2014
Behaviour change and competitive exclusion can explain the diverging HIV-1 and HIV-2 prevalence trends in
W P Schmidt1, M Schim Van Der Loeff, P Aaby
1Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Wolf-Peter.Schmidt@lshtm.ac.uk
Abstract:
The aim of this study was to determine whether a temporary rise in sexual risk behaviour during war in Guinea-Bissau could explain the observed trends in HIV-1 and HIV-2 prevalence, and to explore the possible contribution of competitive elimination of HIV-2 by HIV-1. A simulation model of the heterosexual transmission of sexually transmitted infections was parameterized using demographic, behavioural and epidemiological data from rural Guinea-Bissau, and fitted to the observed HIV-1 and HIV-2 trends with and without a historic rise in risk behaviour. The observed trends could only be simulated by assuming a temporary rise in risk behaviour. Around 30% of the projected decline in HIV-2 prevalence from a peak of 8.7% to 4.3% in 2010 was due to competitive elimination by HIV-1. Importantly for public health, HIV-1 prevalence was predicted to continue increasing and to become the dominant HIV type by 2010. Data collection is required to validate this prediction.
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