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Updated: Jul 14, 2026
20:36
Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Estimating demographic indicators in a conflict-affected population in eastern Sudan
Shannon Doocy1, Gilbert Burnham, Courtland Robinson
1Center for Refugee and Disaster Response, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21105, USA. sdoocy@jhsph.edu
Prehospital and Disaster Medicine
|June 27, 2007
Summary
The Beja population in Sudan faces a critical humanitarian emergency due to elevated mortality rates, exceeding international thresholds. Urgent assistance is required for this overlooked conflict-affected group.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Demography
- Humanitarian Studies
Background:
- The Beja population along the Sudan-Eritrea border has been affected by a decade-long conflict.
- International focus on Darfur has overlooked other conflict-affected populations in Sudan.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess crude mortality rates and demographic characteristics of the Beja population.
- To determine if the Beja population meets criteria for a humanitarian emergency.
Main Methods:
- A mortality study was nested within a nutrition assessment.
- Cluster sampling methods were employed.
- Crude mortality rates and under-five mortality rates were calculated.
Main Results:
- The crude mortality rate was 1.4/10,000/day (95% CI: 1.2-1.6).
- The under-five mortality rate was 2.7/10,000/day (95% CI: 2.2-3.3).
- Both rates exceed the threshold for a humanitarian emergency.
Conclusions:
- The Beja population's status is critical, with elevated mortality and malnutrition.
- Nesting demographic assessments within nutrition assessments is feasible and cost-effective.
- The Beja population urgently requires humanitarian assistance.
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