Predictors of AIDS-defining events among advanced naïve patients after HAART

Baseline and follow-up predictors of new AIDS-defining events or death (ADE/death) among patients who started HAART late in their disease history have rarely been assessed simultaneously.

ADE and mortality rates were assessed using Cox regression analyses. Variables were tested for prediction of ADE/death within the first 3 months of therapy and from month 3, thereafter.

751 HIV-infected patients with <200 CD4+/mm(3) before HAART were followed for a median of 49 months. 207 new ADE occurred (7.06 [6.16-8.10] per 100 patient-years). ADE/deaths clustered within the first 3 months of treatment (106/207, 51%). Higher CD4+ T-cell counts during the follow-up (per log(e) cells/mm(3): hazard ratio [HR] 0.51; 0.41-0.64; p < .001) and use of antiretroviral therapy (HR 0.38; 95% CI 0.21-0.69; p = .001) appeared to protect from ADE/death after month 3. Conversely, increasing follow-up with HIV RNA >400 copies/mL correlated with ADE/death (per month: HR 1.09; 95% CI 1.06-1.12; p = .001). Use of boosted protease inhibitors as first-line HAART and HCV-seropositivity were additional risk factors. Baseline CD4+ T-cell count and HIV RNA had a predominant impact in the first 3 months after HAART initiation.

A careful monitoring of patients with low CD4+ is particularly necessary during the first few months of HAART. Length and extent of viral replication during the follow-up appeared to induce a significantly higher risk of HIV disease progression afterwards, implying that new drugs and new strategies aimed at ensuring long-term suppression of HIV RNA are of outstanding importance.