Human reproductive costs and the predicted response to dietary restriction

The question has arisen in the literature as to whether dietary restriction (DR) will have a significant effect on human longevity. I initially use literature data to estimate the energy costs necessary to carry a human from conception to caloric self-sufficiency to be approximately 12.6 x 10(6)kcal, which amounts to approximately 25% of the the two parents' combined daily caloric intake for 20 years. Similar levels of financial costs are expended in developed societies. Thus, human reproductive costs are high enough to permit a DR response. I then review four different models relating diet and life span, three of which have been previously used to estimate the effects of DR on humans. A review of the pertinent literature suggests that these three models, while plausible, are not capable of making robust predictions that are consistent with human data not used in their development. Given this weakness, none of the predictions made by these theories should be relied on for policy development at this time. The fourth, or biocultural model, examined combines biologic and cultural factors. Human longevity is more complex than our model systems have led us to believe, and thus any solution will require the development of a new quantitative model. The outlines of a suggested quantitative biocultural model based on the prior model of Crews and the disposable soma model of Shanley and Kirkwood are presented and a prediction of the possible data outcomes is made. If the human cultural pro-longevity practices can be quantified in terms of their effect on energy allocation, then this model may serve in future as a realistic quantitative model capable of identifying pertinent pathways and making robust predictions.