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Biased forecasting of postdecisional affect.

Nick Sevdalis1, Nigel Harvey

  • 1University College London, London, United Kingdom. n.sevdalis@imperial.ac.uk

Psychological Science
|August 8, 2007
PubMed
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People often overestimate their future regret and joy when making decisions. This systematic affective misprediction suggests discounting anticipated emotions when forecasting outcomes.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Anticipated postdecisional regret significantly influences decision-making.
  • The accuracy of regret forecasts remains largely unexamined.
  • Understanding affective forecasting is crucial for rational decision theory.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To systematically assess the accuracy of people's regret and rejoicing forecasts.
  • To investigate affective forecasting biases in different decision-making contexts.
  • To provide empirical evidence for refining decision-making models.

Main Methods:

  • Two studies were conducted involving negotiation tasks and academic grading scenarios.
  • Participants made decisions and subsequently reported experienced regret and rejoicing.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Forecasted emotions were compared with experienced emotions to assess accuracy.

    • Main Results:

    • Participants overestimated regret following negotiation failure.
    • Participants overestimated rejoicing and slightly underestimated regret for better-than-expected grades.
    • Consistent affective misprediction was observed across both studies.

    Conclusions:

    • People systematically mispredict the intensity of future emotions, specifically regret and rejoicing.
    • Decision-makers should temper their expectations of anticipated affective outcomes.
    • Findings have implications for understanding biases in decision-making and emotional forecasting.