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Published on: March 30, 2014
Can drug treatment prevent disease in common practice?
Arne Melander1, Gunnar Lindberg, J Lars G Nilsson
1The NEPI Foundation, Malmø, Sweden. arne.melander@nepi.net
Insights
Cardiovascular drug treatments for secondary prevention of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in high-risk individuals are effective and economical. However, primary prevention of MI or stroke in low-risk groups appears ineffective and costly.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular medicine
- Pharmacoeconomics
- Preventive cardiology
Background:
- Assessing the real-world effectiveness and economic viability of cardiovascular drug treatments is crucial for public health.
- Common practice drug treatment efficacy requires evaluation beyond randomized clinical trials (RCTs).
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular drug treatments in common practice.
- To compare the Number Needed to Treat (NNT) in RCTs with Disease Impact Number (DIN) and Population Impact Number (PIN) in real-world settings.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of four preventive cardiovascular randomized clinical trials (RCTs).
- Calculation of 1-year NNT, DIN, and adjusted PIN, accounting for non-adherence.
- Estimation of drug costs and general practitioner (GP) work time required to prevent one event.
Main Results:
- Secondary prevention of MI with simvastatin and stroke prevention with antihypertensives in high-risk elderly were medically and economically effective (e.g., simvastatin: NNT=37, GP work time=2.7 years).
- Primary prevention of MI with pravastatin and antihypertensives in low-risk individuals were found to be ineffective and expensive (e.g., low-risk antihypertensives: NNT=1667, GP work time=58.5 years).
Conclusions:
- Cardiovascular drug treatments demonstrate significant effectiveness and economic benefits for secondary prevention and high-risk primary prevention.
- Preventive drug therapies for low-risk populations appear to be medically and economically inefficient, necessitating careful consideration of treatment guidelines.
Abstract:
To assess whether drug treatment in common practice can prevent disease, we analysed four preventive cardiovascular randomised clinical trials (RCTs), expressing efficacy by 1-year Number Needed to Treat (NNT) in RCT and common practice effectiveness by the Disease Impact Number (DIN) in all subjects at risk and by the Population impact Number (PIN) in the entire population, based on a Swedish population survey. Adjustments were made for non-adherence. Calculations were made of alternative 1-year drug costs and number of years an average general practitioner (GP) would need to work in order to prevent one event using the actual treatment. Secondary prevention of MI by simvastatin (NNT, DIN and adjusted PIN = 37, 93 and 2657; GP work time 2.7 years; drug costs Euro 1020 - 13505), and prevention of stroke by antihypertensive treatment in high-risk subjects (elderly with systolic blood pressure > 160 mm Hg; NNT, DIN and adjusted PIN = 167, 239 and 11950; GP work time 6 years; drug costs Euro 6095 - 51567) appeared medically and economically effective. Primary prevention of MI by pravastatin (NNT, DIN and adjusted PIN 208, 2080 and 24470; GP work time 12.2 years; drug costs Euro 5736 - 117676) or by antihypertensive drug treatment in low-risk subjects (diastolic blood pressure 90-99 mm Hg) (NNT, DIN and adjusted PIN 1667, 3334 and 116982; GP work time 58.5 years; drug costs Euro 60895 - 511718) seemed ineffective and expensive.
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