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Risks of risk decisions.

C Starr, C Whipple

    Science (New York, N.Y.)
    |June 6, 1980
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    Financial cost-benefit analysis for technological risk is useful societally but not individually. Understanding these differences reveals origins of intuitive risk perception and suggests quantitative safety targets can reduce societal conflict costs.

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    Area of Science:

    • Risk Analysis
    • Decision Science
    • Societal Risk Assessment

    Background:

    • Current technological risk assessment methods often borrow from financial cost-benefit analysis.
    • These financial models are generally applicable to societal risk evaluation but fail for individual assessments.
    • Discrepancies between societal and individual risk views stem from intuitive evaluation origins.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze the limitations of financial cost-benefit analogies in technological risk assessment.
    • To explore the origins of individual, intuitive risk evaluations.
    • To investigate how societal risk decisions, often political compromises, incur conflict costs and how quantitative criteria might mitigate them.

    Main Methods:

    • Comparative analysis of societal versus individual risk assessment frameworks.

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  • Examination of the conceptual underpinnings of intuitive risk perception.
  • Exploration of decision-making processes in societal risk contexts.

    • Main Results:

    • Financial risk analysis models are valid for societal risk but not individual risk assessment.
    • Conflicts in risk assessment highlight the basis of individual, intuitive judgments.
    • Societal risk decisions under conflict result in political compromises and significant conflict costs.

    Conclusions:

    • Societal and individual risk assessments require distinct analytical approaches.
    • Understanding the divergence in risk perception is key to addressing intuitive evaluations.
    • Implementing quantitative risk criteria, such as safety targets, can potentially reduce societal conflict costs.