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Parameters of technological growth.

C Starr, R Rudman

    Science (New York, N.Y.)
    |October 26, 1973
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    Societal resources and expectations drive exponential technological growth. This growth is unlikely to stop unless knowledge becomes bounded or resources are deliberately restricted, highlighting the need for population control.

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    Area of Science:

    • Systems dynamics
    • Technological forecasting
    • Societal impact analysis

    Background:

    • Technological advancement is a key driver of societal development.
    • Previous world simulation models have explored the interplay of various growth parameters.
    • Understanding the trajectory of technology is crucial for long-term global modeling.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze the primary drivers of technological growth.
    • To evaluate the suitability of an exponential growth function for technology in world simulation models.
    • To assess the impact of technological growth on societal parameters and quality of life.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of societal resources and expectations as key parameters.
    • Modeling technological growth using an exponential function.

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  • Review of existing world dynamics models (Meadows et al., Forrester) and modifications (Boyd).

    • Main Results:

    • Societal resources and expectations are identified as primary drivers of exponential technological growth.
    • An exponential growth function accurately represents the technological component in world simulation models.
    • Technological growth, while powerful, cannot fully mitigate negative impacts like overcrowding.

    Conclusions:

    • Exponential growth is a robust assumption for technology in world models.
    • Reducing population growth is a critical factor for improving quality of life.
    • Technology is a continuously expandable resource with increasing global importance.