Ankle brachial index and intima media thickness predict cardiovascular events similarly and increased prediction when

Jackie F Price1, Ioanna Tzoulaki, Amanda J Lee

  • 1Wolfson Unit for Prevention of Peripheral Vascular Diseases, Division of Community Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Teviot Place, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, UK. Jackie.Price@ed.ac.uk

Insights

The ankle brachial index (ABI) and carotid intima media thickness (IMT) have similar predictive value for cardiovascular events. Combining ABI and IMT may improve prediction, especially when used sequentially or as continuous variables.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiovascular disease research
  • Biomarker discovery
  • Predictive modeling in medicine

Background:

  • Cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of mortality worldwide.
  • Early identification of individuals at high risk is crucial for preventive interventions.
  • Ankle brachial index (ABI) and carotid intima media thickness (IMT) are established markers of atherosclerosis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the predictive capabilities of ABI and IMT for incident cardiovascular events.
  • To evaluate the incremental predictive value of combining ABI and IMT.
  • To assess the diagnostic accuracy of these biomarkers in a population-based cohort.

Main Methods:

  • A population-based cohort study involving 1,007 participants aged 60-79.
  • Ascertainment of new cardiovascular events (MI, stroke, angina, intermittent claudication) over 12 years.
  • Analysis of predictive values and receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for ABI and IMT.

Main Results:

  • ABI and IMT demonstrated comparable positive and negative predictive values for cardiovascular events.
  • The area under the receiver operator curves (AUC) significantly increased when ABI or IMT was added to age and sex.
  • Combining both ABI and IMT further improved the predictive model's AUC.

Conclusions:

  • The predictive ability of ABI for cardiovascular disease is similar to that of IMT.
  • Combining ABI and IMT offers potential advantages for cardiovascular risk prediction.
  • Sequential testing or using continuous variables for ABI and IMT may enhance clinical utility.
Abstract

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