Prediction of early mortality after acute stroke

The purpose of this trial was to identify clinical factors and evaluation studies with significant value as mortality predictors in patients suffering an acute stroke. One hundred forty-eight consecutive patients hospitalized at the Hospital de Clínicas, Montevideo, with a clinical diagnosis of stroke were studied: 85 had ischemic strokes and 63 presented with intracerebral hemorrhages. The potentially predictive variables (past medical history, clinical assessment, neuroimaging, biochemical analysis) were evaluated within the first 24 hours of admission; patient follow-up was performed until they left the hospital or died. The modified National Institutes of Health Stoke Scale (NIHSS) was used to assess neurologic impairment. Three variables were identified as early mortality predictors in this population: (1) Glasgow Coma Scale score < or = 11 on admission (R = 0.19); (2) severe mass effect, defined as the presence of ventricular shift across the midline and/or enlargement of contralateral ventricle in early computed tomography (CT) scan (R = 0.26); and (3) modified NIHSS quotient score > or = 0.26 on admission (R = 0.27). We conclude that modified NIHSS was the most consistent instrument for an early identification of patients at high mortality risk, even before confirmatory evidence of the stroke's nature was obtained. A cutoff of 0.26 on NIHSS quotient score on admission was identified as the most significant predictive value.