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Modeling external risks in project management.

Jesus Palomo1, David Rios Insua, Fabrizio Ruggeri

  • 1SAMSI-Duke University, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA. jesus_palomo@urjc.es

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|October 26, 2007
PubMed
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This study introduces a Bayesian framework for project management forecasting, predicting impacts of disruptive events on cost, duration, and performance. This aids in better decision-making for bidding and resource allocation under uncertainty.

Area of Science:

  • Project Management
  • Risk Analysis
  • Bayesian Statistics

Background:

  • Modern project management demands accurate forecasting for cost, duration, and performance.
  • External disruptive events introduce significant uncertainty into project outcomes.
  • Existing methods often struggle to account for complex, combined external events.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a Bayesian framework for global project performance forecasting.
  • To predict probabilities and impacts of various disruptive event scenarios.
  • To enhance decision-making in project management, particularly in bidding processes.

Main Methods:

  • A Bayesian framework is proposed for integrated project forecasting.
  • The methodology focuses on predicting the impact of potential scenarios from disruptive events.

Related Experiment Videos

  • The approach is demonstrated using a real-world case study on project cost uncertainty during contract bidding.

    • Main Results:

    • The framework provides a global forecast of project performance under various scenarios.
    • It quantifies the uncertainty in project cost estimation.
    • The approach is adaptable for forecasting project duration and performance.

    Conclusions:

    • The Bayesian framework offers a robust method for project forecasting under uncertainty.
    • It enables better risk assessment and informed decision-making in project management.
    • The methodology is applicable to diverse project management challenges, including bidding and resource allocation.