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Updated: Jul 10, 2026
04:35
Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach
Published on: July 3, 2020
Modeling the forest transition: forest scarcity and ecosystem service hypotheses
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA. akiko.satake@eawag.ch
Summary
The forest transition, a shift from deforestation to restoration, depends on landowner decisions and regeneration rates. Sustainable forest recovery occurs with slow regeneration and valuing the future.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Ecological Economics
- Landscape Dynamics
Background:
- The forest transition describes historical forest cover changes from deforestation to restoration.
- Key questions remain regarding landowner reforestation incentives, recovery rates, and post-transition dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a minimal model of the forest transition.
- To address unanswered questions about forest recovery and landowner behavior.
Main Methods:
- Modeling aggregated effects of landowner decisions and agricultural abandonment on landscapes.
- Investigating equilibrium and stability of landscape dynamics under forest scarcity and ecosystem service hypotheses.
Main Results:
- Forest transition occurs when landowners have low future discounting rates.
- Slow forest regeneration promotes sustainable post-transition protection.
- Rapid regeneration can lead to cycles of deforestation and regeneration (forest scarcity hypothesis).
- Exceeding critical deforestation levels can cause catastrophic shifts and poverty traps (ecosystem service hypothesis).
Conclusions:
- Incentives for forest conservation are stronger with slow regeneration and when decision-makers value the future.
- The rate of forest regeneration significantly impacts landscape stability and sustainability.
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