Memory prediction accuracy in younger and older adults: a cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis

Across three experiments, the effects of age and normative information on memory prediction accuracy were examined. In Experiment 1, younger and older adults were given an arbitrary midpoint anchor and made global predictions about how they expected to perform on subsequent verbal, visual, and name-face memory tasks. In Experiment 2, the normative information was varied by providing participants with a midpoint anchor, accurate anchor, or no anchor. Across both experiments, older adults successfully adjusted their predictions in accordance with the task demands, regardless of the type of normative information given. In Experiment 3, older adults' prediction accuracy was measured at a 5-year follow-up. Memory performance predictions were found to be just as accurate as they had been at the first assessment. In general, the findings indicate that older adults were as accurate as younger adults in assessing their memory performance abilities. Older adults also did not operate on a negative stereotype of global cognitive decline with age, as they provided varying performance estimates across the different domains and types of memory tasks.