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Hurricane destructive power predictions based on historical storm and sea surface temperature data
Kenneth T Bogen1, Edwin D Jones, Larry E Fischer
1Energy and Environment Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, University of California, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. kbogen@exponent.com
Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|December 21, 2007
Summary
This study found sea surface temperature (SST) trends do not fully explain increased hurricane intensity. A baseline model predicts moderate future hurricane power dissipation index (PDI) growth, with higher potential if SST influences are considered.
Area of Science:
- Meteorology and Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Statistical Modeling
Background:
- Hurricane intensity forecasting is challenged by unexplained variations in power dissipation index (PDI) and accumulated PDI (APDI).
- A recent hypothesis links North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends since 1970 to increased hurricane intensity, suggesting future growth due to global warming.
Purpose of the Study:
- To test the hypothesis that NAO SST trends explain increased hurricane intensities.
- To quantitatively assess the implications of SST on future hurricane power.
Main Methods:
- Statistical and probabilistic analyses of North Atlantic hurricane data (1880-2002) and NOAA Extended Reconstruction SST estimates.
- Comparison of hurricane-specific SST with hurricane behavior, contrasting with previous large-region SST analyses.
- Development of stochastic models for APDI and PDI, incorporating SST-dependence scenarios.
Main Results:
- Hurricane-specific SST patterns were inconsistent with PDI monthly variations.
- SST showed weak association with PDI or APDI, but strong correlation with mean latitude and a ~90-year trend.
- Baseline models predict APDI will not exceed its historical maximum by more than 1.5 times in 50 years without SST influence, and up to 2 times with SST influence.
Conclusions:
- The SST hypothesis is not supported by the observed data; SST trends do not fully explain recent increases in hurricane intensity.
- A baseline stochastic model provides a lower bound for future hurricane power, while an SST-influenced model offers a higher potential bound.
- The developed models can estimate upper bounds for hurricane power indices over the next century under various SST influence assumptions.
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